Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,132,539$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,183,867.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,183,867.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $66,369$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,885.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(70,885.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $890,788$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,926$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,282.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(66,282.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,684$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(79.9 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,588.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,588.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,428$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,090$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(436 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,944.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,944.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $197$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(221.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,252$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,578$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(479 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,680.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $326$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(35.8 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 25.8)}}\) (asimptote \(324.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,771$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,088$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(584 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,446.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(50,446.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,061$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(77.1 \times 10^{0.041t}\) (doubling rate \(7.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,159.0}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,159.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,650$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,010$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(88.5 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,420.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,420.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $76$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.19 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(103.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $818$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,611$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(152 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,724.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,724.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.53 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(83.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $780$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $463$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.2 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{898.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(898.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $422$ on 2020-05-02
